Juarez is no longer considered the world's most violent city, but it's a close second. I decided to cross the border and find out if the streets of Juarez really are any safer. While driving in the Borderland city, it's hard to miss what is perhaps the most telling sign things are changing. There are people on the streets, a lot of them. My photographer and I spot a young man and woman sharing an embrace in the city's downtown area. And there are children playing outside.
The observations may not seem like much, but when you compare Juarez today with a snapshot of the city just two years ago, the difference is palpable. In 2010, downtown Juarez was deserted, and some neighborhoods could pass for war zones.
Our first stop is one of the city's many marketplaces. Silverio Arciniega sells herbs for alternative medicine.
"Before, when you would walk the streets, you would be afraid. You would fear that a shootout would break out, and you could be caught in the middle the crossfire," says Arciniega.
The shopping center itself, full of customers, is a sign of life in a city once full of death.
"What's happened is that people have more confidence in going out. People have more confidence in walking the streets and shopping. It's not like before, when they would fear going out into the streets and wait for them to be hit by a stray bullet, says Arciniega.
For or the past three years, Juarez has held a couple of notorious titles. Those include "the most violent city in the world", and "the murder capital of the world." But last year, the murder rate there reportedly dropped 45 percent. In October of this year, there were 30 murders. In October 2010, Juarez officials recorded a record 359 homicides.
New Mexico State University professor Molly Molloy is tracking the number of dead.
The Latin America specialist says, "A lot of the random violence, the heavy violence, and the shootouts, are not happening. As far as I can tell, there are probably between one and two killings per day."
Arciniega gives part of the credit for a drop in murders to the departure of the Federales.
"I think people have more confidence now that the feds have left. The Federales came here and tore everything up. People would not trust the Federales," said Arciniega.
The city's grisly violence is the inspiration behind the documentary "Eight Murders a Day". The director, Charlie Minn, recently produced another film. The title is "The New Juarez." The latest film includes an interview with the mayor of Juarez, Hector Murguia.
"The hope we have in Juarez for the arriving Enrique Pena Nieto as president is very high," said Murguia. The shop owner we interviewed agreed.
"There have been a lot of businesses that have closed, and now they have reopened. Restaurants, local shops and auto stores have reopened," said Arciniega.
Still, safer does not necessarily mean Juarez is safe. The family members of the 30 people murdered in October knows this firsthand. Some business owners tell me extortion and kidnapping are still real threats. One human rights group says torture cases are on the rise. Others worry the arrests of high-profile cartel leaders could cause the groups to splinter and cause more violence. Professor Molloy is skeptical about a continued decline of Juarez's poverty rate. She points out young people in Juarez still have few choices when it comes to making a good living in the city. Molloy says the high poverty rate pushes many young people into a life of violence.
"They see their options as very limited. They can either work in the factories, where they earn $50 dollars a week, or they can work for criminals, and often, those criminals are police and earn a lot more." said Molloy.
And despite the murder rate dropping in Juarez, the United States government just issued a travel advisory for the city. People living in the U.S. are being warned about the dangers of traveling to Juarez over the holidays. Officials describe Juarez and Chihuahua as places of special concern. The warning advise against any non-essential travel to the areas.
That is not good news for businessmen like Arciniega. He is hoping for an increase in tourism and more. Arciniega has family that lives right across the border, in El Paso, but he rarely sees them. And when he does, the meeting takes place at a port of entry. His American relatives are still too scared to cross the border
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